Early Polling Delegate Vote Totals for LP Pres. and VP Candidates Are In

Justin Amash

The leaders according to the poll: [The libertarian-lite] Justin Amash for President and Larry Sharpe for VP.

NOTE: The final voting will take place at the Libertarian National Convention on-line meeting. 

Delegate polling results (272 ballots cast) are based on the Libertarian Party of Kentucky polling.

Only polled confirmed selected primary delegates, except for those states where the state chair informed LPK of the primary delegates that would be, but had not yet been, selected.

Margin of error with 1046 delegates: +/-5%. Some, but not all, states and, some, but not all delegates agreed to participate, and regionalism is a factor in an LP election. Some agreed to participate late in the process. These factors could have an impact on the accuracy of the polling.

LKP advises:

Please note that the LP elects it’s ticket in a multi round ballot, and things happen in that process that cannot be simulated with an instant runoff vote. For instance, defeated candidates can and do make endorsements that sways delegates. And caucuses whip votes. It’s not clear how much of that may or will happen this year with an online convention. Any candidate receiving under 5% of the vote is removed and defeated. And None of the Above (NOTA) is always an option every LP ballot, every round. And, due to the token process, it is possible that not every candidate (particularly those receiving few votes) would be included in a first round ballot. So these results are a very good (and better than any other poll conducted to date since they involve selected primary delegates), but not perfect, approximation of where the races stand. We are releasing the raw data below, but our post below involves some interpreting, in that OPAvote instant runoff does not, for instance, remove candidates who do not achieve the required 5%, and so over-inflates the number of rounds involved. We did not post results for candidates that received no votes.

Round 1:
Justin Amash - 90 - 33.3%
Jacob Hornberger - 57 - 21%
Jo Jorgensen - 44 - 16.6%
Vermin Supreme - 20 - 7.7%
Jim Gray - 18 - 6.6%
Adam Kokesh - 16 - 6.2%
John Monds - 13 - 5%
Arvin Vorha - 4 - 1.5%
Other - 1 - 0.4%
None of the Above - 1 - 0.4%
(as a result, Vorha, Other, and Monds are dropped)

Round 2 (which appears as Round 7 in the data):
Justin Amash - 95 - 35.1%
Jacob Hornberger - 60 - 23.3%
Jo Jorgensen - 50 - 18.5%
Vermin Supreme - 24 - 9.3%
Adam Kokesh - 21 - 7.7%
Jim Gray - 19 - 7%
(Jim Gray is eliminated)

Round 3 (Round 8 in the data)
Amash - 100 - 37.3%
Hornberger - 60 - 22.4%
Jorgensen - 58 - 21.6%
Supreme - 27- 10.1%
Kokesh - 23 - 8.6%
(Adam Kokesh is eliminated)

Round 4 (Round 9 in the data)
Amash - 103 - 39.3%
Jorgensen - 65 - 24.8%
Hornberger - 60 - 22.9%
Supreme - 34 - 13%
(Vermin Supreme is eliminated)

Round 5 (Round 10 in the data)
Amash - 109 - 43.8%
Jorgensen - 76 - 30.5%
Hornberger - 64 - 25.7%
(Jacob Hornberger is eliminated)

Round 6 (Round 11 in the data)
Amash - 134 - 55.6%
Jorgensen - 107 - 44.4%
(Justin Amash is elected)

Vice President:
Round 1
Armstrong - 24 - 8.9%
Behrman - 4 - 1.5%
Cohen - 37 - 13.8%
Ellison - 1- 0.4%
Istan - 1 - 0.4%
Jorgensen - 42 - 15.6%
Kokesh - 11 - 4.1%
McAfee - 8 - 3%
Monds - 14 - 5.2%
Robb - 2- 0.7%
Sarwark - 20 - 7.4%
Sharpe - 93 - 34.6%
Other - 3 - 1.1%
Vorha - 4 -1.5%
NOTA - 5 - 1.9%
(all under 5% and Monds eliminated)

Round 2
(Round 12 in the data)
Sharpe: 108 - 42.4%
Jorgensen - 53 - 20.8%
Cohen - 42 - 16.5%
Armstrong - 27 - 10.6%
Sarwark - 25 - 9.8%
(Sarwark eliminated)

Round 3
(Round 13 in the data)
Sharpe - 116 - 46.2%
Jorgensen - 57 - 22.7%
Cohen - 45 -17.9%
Armstrong - 33 -13.1%
(Armstrong eliminated)

Round 4
(Round 14 in the data)
Sharpe - 134 - 54.5%
Jorgsensen - 62 - 25.2%
Cohen - 50 - 20.3%
(Larry Sharpe elected)

-RW
(ht Michael Edelstein)