The Wall Street Journal editorial desk writes under the headline, "The 'Red Wave' Illusion":
Republicans on present trend are poised in November to lose their majority in the House of Representatives and a slew of governorships. That’s the clear message from Tuesday’s election contests and a growing body of evidence. The President’s persona is trumping positive policy results among voters, and without some intervening news or a change in strategy the result is likely to be a national left turn.I am no fan of Republicans or most any other politicians but if the Journal read of the November mid-terms is correct, it is in line with what I have expected. Trump is chasing many in the direction of the central planning.
Republicans appear to have won a narrow victory in the special House election in Ohio, with provisional and absentee ballots still to be counted. But a win of less than 1% in a heavily Republican district is hardly a show of strength. The Democratic share of the two-party vote surged as it has in every special election this year, while GOP State Senator Troy Balderson was crushed in Franklin County around Columbus by 2 to 1.
The ominous news for Republicans is that they hold about 68 House seats that are less Republican than this Ohio district. Most include stretches of suburbia that have been GOP strongholds but where many voters dislike Mr. Trump’s abrasive style and polarizing governance. Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to regain the majority they lost in 2010, and three or four times as many seats could be in play in November...
Our sense is that Republican voters haven’t recognized how much jeopardy the party is in. Many are content to listen only to their safe media spaces that repeat illusions about a “red wave” and invoke 2016 when the media said Mr. Trump couldn’t win. Nearly all of the media does want Democrats to win again, and humility was one of the lessons we learned from the surprises of 2016.
But that’s not an excuse for ignoring the evidence of GOP trouble. Mr. Trump barely won in 2016 against the weakest Democratic candidate since Michael Dukakis, and Hillary isn’t on the ballot this year.