Monday, November 14, 2016

The Absolutely Best Analysis of Why Donald Trump Won the Election

John Schindler nails it.

This is a must read.


  1. Interesting read. I think the Trump voter "white nationalism" angle is overdone, though. You never heard those same voters, known in the 80s as "Reagan Democrats", described that way. However, the ethno-nationalist concerns that the writer describes do seem to dovetail with the potentially disorderly and not liberty oriented secession and political decentralization being discussed lately.

  2. Isn't the Observer a Trump rag?

    "In the end, such word games only enflamed the passions of all ethnic groups and helped fragment the Soviet Union, whose collapse was more about competing nationalisms than anything else."

    Sure (wink wink). It didn't have anything to do with the ultimate socialist economic model. (nudge nudge)

  3. I’m doing a small victory dance because I have been ranting since 1973 that:

    1. Democrats and “progressives” hate working people;

    2. People ALWAYS vote ethnic/religious/tribal and I have been referring libertarians to this book from 1972 which demonstrates that proposition and which is now free online:

    “Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory of Democratic Instability” by Shepsle and Rabushka

    3. Democrats, “progressives” and Keynesians haven’t the slightest familiarity with even the most basic libertarian and Austrian concepts such as voluntary exchange and economic calculation/miscalculation, they have no interest in gaining any such familiarity or understanding and it is absurd for us to act as if they do.

    4. Libertarians for the most part are completely oblivious to 1, 2 and 3. And, if you think about it, 4. They are oblivious about their obliviousness, which explains their nominating the oblivious Gary Johnson.

    5. As an aside, I think Keynesians and “progressives” are actually terrified of Austrian analysis because it is based upon the idea that “truth” as in “truth in pricing” can only come about by giving the hated rabble free reign. The entire self-image and self-worth of a “progressive” is based upon their view that they are superior and the rabble require the control of the anointed. They cannot handle the idea that THEY are the biggest problem hobbling the poor and minorities. In fact, “progressives” are totally afraid of us (as evidenced by their failure to engage us) and we should act like it. Make them squirm.

  4. Trump got (slightly) less of the white vote than Romney. The facts don't seem to be in support of Schindler's theory.

    1. I think that Trumps strategic genius all along was to recognize that he could win not by necessarily getting more white votes overall but by getting more white, blue collar and suburban votes in key battleground states that Romney lost. This is why (in addition to the usual massive vote fraud among DemocRats) he narrowly lost the popular vote but won big in the electoral college.

  5. White folks are only now beginning to see the handwriting on the wall. It's obvious that if or when we become just another minority faction the "traditional" minority factions will collude to make us permanent second class citizens.

    To a great extent this has already happened with affirmative action, unlimited non white immigration and the open self contempt the establishment has for it's own race. The Alt-Right has been at the vanguard in getting millions of white voters to understand that they are in danger of become a permanent, oppressed and vilified underclass by design of The Overlords.

    However, I think a simpler explanation of Trumps improbable victory is at hand. His opponent and her numerous surrogates in the establishment are astoundingly arrogant, self deluded, corrupt, obnoxious and incompetent. This fact suppressed the Hillary vote such that she lost millions of low information drone voters on the left who are attracted to superficial attributes like celebrity status, facile teleprompter reading, sharply creased pant legs and most importantly, darker skin color.

    In short, The Bitch was about as bad a candidate as DemocRats could have picked and they didn't even have a better option either. Hilary Clinton is Bob Dole in pantsuits and that just doesn't get you to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Ever.

  6. Exit polls don't really support this analysis:

    2016: Trump won whites (70% of voting block) 58 - 37. Clinton won non-whites (30%) 74 - 21.

    2012: Romney won whites (72%) 59 - 39. Obama won non-whites (28%) 80 - 18.

    2008: McCain won whites (74%) 55-43. Obama won non-whites (26%) 83-17.

    It seems the difference in this race was turnout for Clinton and young whites went for Trump (if you can trust the exit polls). Trump got about the same number of votes as Romney. 3rd parties got 4.5 million more votes than 2012 and Clinton got about 4.8 million fewer than Obama.

    The takeaways for Republicans:

    Run personality driven candidates, control the attention, get out and meet the people in person. Better if male and have some time in political newsmaking, but are generally regarded as outsiders. Increase odds of winning if dark skinned.

    Future GOP choices: Peter Thiel in 2020, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson in 2028

    Seriously, Clinton was a historically bad candidate but now the Democrats have probably locked themselves into needing to run a minority or female candidate. They're slowly losing their lock on the minority vote.

    1. Thanks for this. Racists certainly voted for Trump. But not all of Trump Voters are racist.