My June 24 op-ed on the PBS NewsHour Making$ense site, co-authored with Emma Smith, shows the strong relationship between consumer confidence and presidential elections going back to 1952. Current readings suggest an 80% chance of a Clinton victory, but the Brexit aftermath threatens to knock that down significantly.
I hope you find the piece of interest.
All best regards,Benn Steil is author of The Battle of Bretton Woods. Emma Smith is an analyst at the Council.