Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, emails:
My June 24 op-ed on the PBS NewsHour Making$ense site, co-authored with Emma Smith, shows the strong relationship between consumer confidence and presidential elections going back to 1952. Current readings suggest an 80% chance of a Clinton victory, but the Brexit aftermath threatens to knock that down significantly.
I hope you find the piece of interest.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/column-will-brexit-affect-u-s-consumer-confidence-the-outcome-may-determine-our-next-president/
All best regards,
Benn
Benn Steil is author of
The Battle of Bretton Woods. Emma Smith is an analyst at the Council.
His chart has two outliers in the past five data points. Bush is mentioned in 2000, but Obama is one in 2012 also. It doesn't seem people are adhering to previously held notions of political analysts, even in their theory. I think that holds out, the energy this year doesn't seem to revolve around people voting based on their pocketbooks. I could be wrong, but the energy feels more like a sort of cultural war, for lack of better words.
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