Not much according to Marina Koren at National Journal who writes:
Don't mistake winning the CPAC straw poll as the first step toward winning the GOP's presidential nomination. In CPAC's 41-year history, only three poll winners on record have gone on to become Republican presidential nominees: Ronald Reagan (who won twice), George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney. The conference has official results for only 20 polls in that time, but the success rate shows that these polls are not a reliable predictor of who ends up a GOP nominee.
I think what it means is that a straw poll may reflect the opinion of those present at a convention, the actual choice on a candidate is made in private by a handful of party fatboys. My rule of thumb is that if a candidate is a GOP politician, running for the GOP nomination, he isn't someone who represents anyone other than the party leadership. That includes any politician with the surname Paul.
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