Thursday, March 26, 2020

The New York Times Says 1 Million Could Die in the US By October from COVID-19

In a new attack on President Trump, The New York Times now claims that 1 million could die by October, if Trump opens up the country by Easter. In an article titled "Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do," they begin:
President Trump says he wants the United States “raring to go” in two and a half weeks, on Easter, with “packed churches all over our country.” He and many other political conservatives suggest that we are responding to something like the flu with remedies that may be more devastating than the disease.
We created this interactive model with epidemiologists to show why quickly returning to normal could be a historic mistake that would lead to an explosion of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
Here are the calculations:
[T]he model suggests that 126.5 million people could contract the coronavirus across the United States between January and late October (with 37.8 million at the peak on June 5). More than 1.3 million people would die under these conditions and 125 million people would recover.
Oh, one problem. The Times then goes on to admit they have no real data to support  their model:
These numbers offer a false precision, for we don’t understand Covid-19 well enough to model it exactly.


  1. Bob -

    13 days ago, the Ohio governor and chief medical officer said there were 100,000 Ohioans infected with COVID-19. Not would be infected, were infected.

    How did they come up with that number? No idea. It was probably based on a infection model given the number of cases identified in the US at that time.

    Based on the claim that the virus spreads easily, the current number of infected would have to be magnitudes greater. Yet, to date, there are only 704 Ohioans who have symptoms requiring attention and have tested positive.

    In a bad flu season, given the CDC high estimates, New York could register 7,500 deaths. The current NY COVID-19 count is 366.

    In January of this year, NY State was reporting the highest recorded number of seasonal flu cases (record-keeping started in 1998). If there were no test for COVID-19, statisticians could not have found a COVID-19 blip in the noise of data arising from the seasonal flu.

    I suspect the number of infected will be extremely high, it may well be extremely high now. But that only shows the virus to be relatively tame, so to speak.

    Italy is now on the down side. China is still counting stragglers. Yet our politicians and media are still shouting "we are all going to die."

    Why the aggressive panic from Cuomo and other politicians? The answers are obvious: $2-$6 trillion for friends and family and a presidential election.