CNN's John King: Rand Paul A Disappointment; A Distant 5th Place

With 75% of the precincts reporting, Rand has 4% of the vote.

Another strategic error by Rand, focusing on students who don't go to caucuses.

FLASHBACK: On Sunday: Bold Rand Paul Statement: "We think we even have a chance of winning [Iowa]"

On Monday morning on MSNBC. My bold:

PAUL: 1,500 people at the University of Iowa, great raucous crowd, I mean, a lot of enthusiasm. We have 100 young men and women every day for the last three or four weeks making phone calls. They have made a million phone calls in Iowa.

STEVE RATTNER, MSNBC ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTOR: So how do you think you will come out of this? You're not expecting to win, I assume, but where do you think you'll get --

PAUL: I don't know, why not! I have never lost a race. I've never lost a race before.

RATTNER: But you talked about the polls, but "The Des Moines Register" poll hasn't been wrong since, when, 1988 or something like that?

PAUL: There's always a first.

I think the polls are becoming increasingly erratic, all of them, because it's much more difficult to get people on the phone, even the pollsters will tell you this, it's hard to find people on the phone, it's hard to find young people, it's hard to get the spread that you need for the demographic. So I think the polls are way off.

-RW