Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Rand on the Debate Bubble

The Hill reports:
Rand Paul is once again on the bubble for Thursday's GOP debate and needs a strong round of polling down the stretch to propel him back into the main event.

The criteria for Fox News’s debate main stage includes candidates polling within the top six in national polls or the top five in polls from early-voting Iowa or New Hampshire. Those polls must be both conducted and released by Tuesday at 5 p.m. Eastern. Paul will likely miss the threshold in New Hampshire and national polls; the Hawkeye State presents his best shot.

Based on current RealClearPolitics polling averages, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich would currently qualify for the main stage. Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum would compete in the undercard debate, with Paul the only candidate with a significant chance of moving up.

The network does not release qualifying polls ahead of time, so it’s unclear which polls already released will qualify. Paul currently sits in sixth in RealClearPolitics’s average of recent polling in Iowa, meaning he needs to close the 0.8 percentage point gap with Bush in order to make the stage.

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