Former Trump Aide: He’s Doomed

Sam Nunberg was a political adviser who worked for Donald Trump until earlier this year. He lost his job after old Facebook rants were discovered, including one where he called Obama a “Socialist Marxist Islamo Fascist Nazi Appeaser.” But that doesn't mean he isn't watching the Trump campaign closely. Tim Mak of Daily Beast spoke to him and reports:

[D]espite his affection for the candidate, Nunberg insists that no one should be sanguine about Trump’s prospects. “He’s not going to win in Iowa, and he is very precarious in New Hampshire,” Nunberg said. First, to Iowa. Nunberg says Trump has a natural disadvantage among caucus-goers in the state: a majority of caucus-goers hold college degrees, a demographic which tends not to support Donald Trump. Combined with a net favorability of +17 percent, compared to Sen. Ted Cruz’s net favorability of +55 percent, Trump has very little room to grow. “Mr. Trump’s real ceiling is going to be 20 percent on caucus day,” Nunberg predicted, based on what he called a “pessimistic” view of the facts. He pointed to three live surveys of likely Republican voters, conducted by Monmouth, Loras, and the Des Moines Register in December, that show Trump losing to Cruz. “He’s going to lose Iowa. Cruz will win Iowa,” Nunberg said. “Some of that Trump support will move over to Cruz in New Hampshire, once he loses. I then believe that, because Rubio will… consolidate a lot of that establishment support… he’ll surge at the end.” Like in Iowa, a majority of 2012 New Hampshire primary voters have college degrees, a state where Trump is currently leading. But a recent poll said that 57 percent of voters in the state would “never” vote for Trump in a primary... “Once he loses Iowa, he’ll drop” in New Hampshire, especially if he doesn’t come through with significant television advertising, Nunberg said. “Everybody else is buying TV right now, so it’s an advantage everyone else has over him, regardless of whether he thinks he needs it or not. They will be using TV to cut into his support.” If Trump loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll stumble into South Carolina. “Once Cruz wins Iowa, and if he beats Trump in New Hampshire, which he very well could, Cruz would win South Carolina, from a momentum perspective,” Nunberg predicted. If this scenario plays out, Nunberg doesn’t “see a pathway to the nomination—he certainly wouldn’t be the frontrunner anymore, and his numbers will start to fall.”

 “Once he loses Iowa, he’ll drop” in New Hampshire, especially if he doesn’t come through with significant television advertising, Nunberg said. “Everybody else is buying TV right now, so it’s an advantage everyone else has over him, regardless of whether he thinks he needs it or not. They will be using TV to cut into his support.”

If Trump loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll stumble into South Carolina. “Once Cruz wins Iowa, and if he beats Trump in New Hampshire, which he very well could, Cruz would win South Carolina, from a momentum perspective,” Nunberg predicted.

If this scenario plays out, Nunberg doesn’t “see a pathway to the nomination—he certainly wouldn’t be the frontrunner anymore, and his numbers will start to fall.”