Saturday, August 1, 2015

Why Isn't This Rand?

Linda Killian at WSJ writes:

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are tapping into the same dissatisfaction that helped Ross Perot capture 19% of the vote in 1992.

Many of those dismissing Mr. Trump’s candidacy suggest that he appeals only to ill-informed voters looking for a thrill. But polls indicate that Mr. Trump’s appeal is widespread, running well beyond the ultra-conservative wing of the GOP.

According to the Monmouth University poll released this week, 24% of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters favor Mr. Trump, compared with 12% supporting Jeb Bush, the only other candidate registering in double digits in this poll.

Because New Hampshire has an open primary, in which independents can also cast ballots, both Republicans and independent voters were surveyed. Mr. Trump does better among registered independents and new voters (29%) than among registered Republicans (21%).

Mr. Trump did well not only with very conservative voters but also with somewhat conservative voters and those who say they are moderate to liberal. He is leading among all age groups...

Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who worked on Ross Perot’s independent presidential campaign in 1992, told me recently that in focus groups around the country he hears people saying that Mr. Trump “captures the public mood better than any other candidate.”

Mr. Trump may be offensive and outrageous, Mr. Luntz said, referring to Mr. Trump’s remarks about Mexican immigrants and Sen. John McCain‘s service record, but he is also saying things others are afraid or too polite to voice.

An additional factor in the Trump and Sanders popularity is that even before this campaign cycle started, swing voters around the country were tired of the same political faces.


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