Prisoner's Dilemma and the Iowa Three

By Robert Wenzel

I am not a big fan of game theory and I think the subcategory, prisoner's dilemma, is generally not a very compelling theory to spend much time contemplating.

However, with the recent federal indictment of three former Ron Paul Inc. operatives, John Tate, Jesse Bentom and Dimtri Kesari, for their roles in under the table payments to an Iowa official to switch allegiance to Ron Paul from Michelle Bachmann, during the 2012 presidential season, prisoner's dilemma becomes a lot more interesting.

What we have here is prisoner's dilemma on steroids in a three dimensional universe.

An examination of the options for the Iowa 3, from a prisoner's dilemma perspective, is quite instructive.

We know, for example, from the indictment that both Tate and  Benton may have, even before the indictment came down, attempted to cooperate with the government. We know this becasue in the indictment they are both charged with lying during proffer sessions.

According to Weisenberg Law:

Just what is a proffer...? Proffer or "queen for a day" letters are written agreements between federal prosecutors and individuals under criminal investigation which permit these individuals to tell the government about their knowledge of crimes, with the supposed assurance that their words will not be used against them in any later proceedings...

If you enter into one of these agreements, you will proffer information orally in a proffer or queen for a day "session" attended by you, your attorney, the Assistant U.S. Attorney ("AUSA") and one or more federal agents...You should think of a proffer session as a sneak preview in which you show the federal authorities what you can bring to the table if they cut a deal with you.

Most proffers are made with the informal understanding that the government, if satisfied that you are telling the truth in the proffer session, will subsequently enter into a formal, written immunity agreement or plea bargain agreement with you...

News, via the indictment, of these proffer sessions by Tate and Benton could not have made Kesari a happy co-conspirator. Kesari appeared to be keeping his mouth shut, like a good soldier, and Tate and Benton were talking to the Feds.

So if Tate and Benton were talking before an indictment, Kesari now has to believe that they are even more willing to cut a deal and talk, now that they have been charged. Kesari doesn't need Neumann and Morgenstern to tell him what to do here. A grade school kid could figure it out. especially given that Kesari is under investigation for a related break-in in Rhode Island.

Kesari, a Virginia resident, must have been quite surprised to learn from news reports that Glocester, RI police officials are aware that he was in Rhode Island the weekend of the break-in.

They probably learned by checking his phone records. So here is the thing. If Kesari was just quarterbacking the break-in and the break-in was actually done by someone else, a black bag man, the police probably know who that other person is also.

I have a theory that the government can do something that can best be called "ping pairing." Under my theory, if government officials have a subject in mind and want to find who he is meeting with at a certain date and time, they check to see what location his cell phone was pinging from and check to see who else was pinging from the same area at the same time.

This will, of course, produce more than one result, but with a little detective work and process of elimination, there is a very good chance they are going to identify who the subject was meeting with.

Thus, things are closing in on Kesari from many directions. If there was a black bag man and the police have identified him, he is extremely likely to roll over. His minor role means the police are likely to give him a good deal if he talks.

Kesari knows this and given that the other two Iowa 3 conspirators appear to have already been doing some preliminary singing, Kesari will likely crack. Especially since there is probably more dirt to come out, if we learn what was on the stolen Jared Gamble lap top that was at the epicenter of the Rhode Island escapade. You don't execute such a complex break-in unless there is something that really needs to be covered up.

Thus, there is pressure from many sides for Kesari to sing. Tate and Benton have certainly figured this out and know to protect as much of their hides as they can, singing is the best for them also.

So the picture that emerges is that the Iowa 3 is a trio all likely willing to sing. The only thing we don't know yet is what the lyrics are that they will sing.

Though the government for sure would like to hear:

"And Rand da ta da...."

  Robert Wenzel is Editor & Publisher at EconomicPolicyJournal.com and at Target Liberty. He is also author of The Fed Flunks: My Speech at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Follow him on twitter:@wenzeleconomics