What’s Wrong With Rand Paul’s Campaign?

Harry Enten explains another number that should concern Team Rand:

It would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on Paul’s meager standing in horse race polls. Again, it’s super early, and the Republican field is crowded and confused; as more and more candidates enter the race — there are now 16 — it becomes more difficult for candidates to maintain their support. Donald Trump is busy sucking up all the media’s attention, and there’s a decent argument to be made that Trump is appealing to Paul’s voters.

The more worrying problem for Paul is his favorability numbers: They’re also dropping. Different pollsters ask about favorability in different ways, but YouGov has checked the popularity of almost every Republican candidate every single week since the beginning of the year. So we can easily compare from poll to poll. Over the first five weeks of 2015, Paul’s favorable rating averaged 62 percent among Republicans. Just 14 percent had an unfavorable view of him. Over the five most recent weeks, though, Paul’s favorable rating has averaged 52 percent, with an unfavorable rating of 27 percent. His net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) has dropped by nearly half, from +48 percentage points to +25 percentage points.

It’s the same story in Iowa and New Hampshire. The Des Moines Register and Quinnipiac University polls found that Paul’s net favorability had dropped in Iowa by 18 and 14 percentage points, respectively, compared with the beginning of the year. In New Hampshire, Paul’s net favorability rating has sunk by 15 percentage points according to the University of New Hampshire and 11 percentage points according to Suffolk University.

Paul’s lost his footing not only because he’s disappeared from the media coverage but also because GOP voters like him less. Both are fixable problems. But solving the first — finding favor with the press — won’t be enough. Paul has to find favor with Republican voters, too.

  -RW