Carly Fiorina is Not Likely to Make the Top Ten for the CNN Debate, Despite Her Strong Performance in the Last Debate

Phil Bump explains why:

Carly Fiorina's campaign is mad, and with good reason.

Her strong performance in the Aug. 6 undercard debate has propelled her upward in subsequent polling. Before the debate, she polled at, at most, 2 percent in the eight most recent polls. Afterward, she hit 5 percent -- enough to be in the top 10 in the two most recent national surveys.

CNN, like Fox News before it, will only feature 10 candidates during its prime-time debate. In theory, that's good news for Fiorina. But in practice, it isn't. CNN's criteria will use a polling average that includes those eight polls in which Fiorina was at 2 percent or less -- meaning that she needs a lot more polls to lift her average into the top ten.