Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Is Biden On Course for a Blowout Victory?

 The above headline comes courtesy of the Financial Times.

The accompanying story states:

With just over three weeks to go until US election day, Joe Biden has a significant polling advantage over Donald Trump, pointing to a potential blowout victory for the Democratic presidential challenger on November 3...

A flurry of polls conducted since the first acrimonious presidential debate and Mr Trump’s hospitalisation for coronavirus show that Mr Biden’s lead has widened at a time when millions of Americans have already voted or plan to do so before election day, either by mail or in person...

Several national polls have recently shown Mr Biden, the former vice-president, ahead by double digits, while an Financial Times analysis of RealClearPolitics data puts his lead at nine points. In several battleground states that hold the key to winning the Electoral College, he is also in the lead, albeit by a smaller margin...

An FT analysis of recent state polls gives Mr Biden an almost seven-point advantage in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, and a six-point edge in Wisconsin — three Midwestern states that were crucial in Mr Trump’s come-from-behind victory in 2016.

But there is a small contingent that argues mainstream polls are inaccurate and based on faulty methodology of the pollsters which is designed to promote the idea of Biden momentum more than anything else.

The most impressive pollster holding a contrary view is the non-partisan British polling firm Democratic Institute. DI is the only polling firm that correctly called Brexit and Trump's 2016 election win. They now show a Trump electoral victory.

If you want all the details of why DI is getting different results, here's is a 3 hour clip of institute director Patrick Basham discussing why he is showing election results that are different from mainstream results.

The meat of the discussion starts at roughly the 24 minute and 10-second mark.

I don't trust anything that comes out of mainstream media, especially when it comes to Trump, so there may be something to the DI polling.

I am not a pollster so I don't have the background to judge, but I wouldn't mortgage the house and put all the money on Biden blowout victory.



  1. And then you see thousands show up for Trump's first post covid rally yesterday, while practically no one showed up for Biden in AZ.

    Election night in 2016 was a fun surprise. Election night 2020 is going to be hilarious. I meam, if one can have a sense of humor about a contest between two sociopaths...

    David B.

  2. With the correct application of advanced statistical methodology, an independent ham sandwich could be shown to have a decisive lead. Of course, it may be indicted before elction dsy, but that's another story...

  3. I'm sure these polls and all of the actual votes will make an interesting conversation point for the people who remote in to the central tabulator, manipulate the results and choose the next president.

  4. If the media showed Biden say he was running for senate, again, and saying he wasn’t a $15 million minimum wage, he would be long done.
    That is assuming there is actually a person that is voted in and not installed
    I got an email from the state that encouraged me to vote by mail and that restrictions and requirements for mail in voting in the past had been suspended.

  5. I have said for months that the only way Trump can win is for Biden to have a major stroke/drop dead.
    Looks like I was right.
    But...there is still time.
    And Biden looks awful.
    Trump actually looks healthy next to him.

  6. Are the polls purposely saying Biden is way ahead, so when Trump wins, the cry of “fraud” and Trump stole the election will get the commies out to start burning down the cities and create chaos? Especially if he wins the electoral vote but not the popular? Hillary was supposedly way ahead of Trump in 2016 in the polls. Seems plausible to me. I think they want Trump to win, so they can create major chaos, and use it all for the great reset. Why else would they pick Biden? He’s an inch away from getting admitted to an old folks home.

    1. I have to admit, that's a good theory. Biden is kind of a walking dead mummy like the Hildebeast and Harris is a long time ho posing as an oppressed black person.

      My Indian friends tell me that most Indians hate Harris since she is now trying to pass herself off as Indian after ignoring them forever. Indians also like Trump standing up to China which is also their enemy.

  7. I see way more Trump signs and flags than Biden/Harris, I mean Harris/Biden. At least in Texas, go to almost any rural area especially. Quiet a few Latinos are also supporting Trump.

    The polls are BS though that does not mean it may come close in some states.

    I'll be voting for Trump though I know you libertardians here love open borders, jobless American with more failed 'free trade', cowering to China and such.

    1. Don't forget how much they also love "free market" censorship.

  8. Because of the hate for Trump and anyone who supports him or even thinks of voting for him there is no way polls can be accurate even if they aren't being gamed. So very many people aren't going to tell anyone they plan on voting for Trump. They don't want the grief or risk being a target. They'll either no answer or say Biden or some 3rd party also ran.

    Then of course there all the reasons to fabricate poll results including to contest the election should Biden lose.

    I am not saying Trump will win, I have no clue, I am simply saying the polls can't measure accurately because of the ongoing violence and social consequences of being a Trump voter.

  9. If you go back and look at your 2016 blog post about Hillary winning the debate and Trump needing to do better in the next debate.

    I posted a comment stating trump will win despite his poor debate performances. Hillary is just that bad of a candidate.

    I honestly have no clue this year. My head hurts trying to figure out what the heck is going on this year. Biden is not a great candidate. But hey my dad is pretty hard right. He did not vote for trump or Biden.

    Lots of people are just plain sick of Trump’s antics.

    1. Which antics? Not starting new wars? Reducing taxes? Triggering Marxists?