Wednesday, August 26, 2020

"Who is Going to Win the Election?"

A question I am getting frequently is "Who is going to win the election, Trump or Biden?"

My consistent answer has been, it is too early to tell.

Since I am an Austrian school economist,I know that looking into the future is always a difficult task because it is impossible to know all the relevant facts that will emerge. And I am particularly hesitant to make a call about the 2020 presidential election.

There are just too many obvious moving parts. How will Joe Biden do in the debates? Will there be debates?

What kind of dirt is going to come out on Biden? What kind of dirt is going to come out on Trump?

The Trump campaign versus the Biden campaign is likely to be one of the nastiest in presidential campaign history. You can be certain they all have October surprises and September surprises and day one November surprises.

How is this whole ballot mail-in effort by the Democrats going to work? Will they stuff the mailboxes? Will they get caught stuffing the mailboxes? Will the election be contested in the courts?

Will riots intensify in the United States before the election and scare suburban housewive and cause them to vote for Trump? I can make a good case that for Black Lives Matter to continue to gain followers and more radicalize the country, it is better for them if Trump wins.

I am sure BLM understands this, after all, they are trained Marxists.

It is probably not an accident that BLM's useful idiots in the streets have started protesting in quiet neighborhoods.

Will blacks come out for Kop Kamala?

I have a friend who studies every county in the country He knows the demographics and voting tendencies of each one of them. He knows more details about the counties in the San Francisco Bay Area betterthan I do---and he lives on the East Coast.

He says Trump will win, not the popular vote but again the electoral vote. He says the Republicans will hold the Senate 52-48. He is good.

But right now, I am sticking with it is too early to tell and it is quite possible that I won't even have a strong opinion on who will win on election day. -RW


  1. Way too early. It's like betting on the Super Bowl before the playoffs even start.

  2. The winner will be whoever is the last one to hack into the central tabulators in key states and fractionalize the votes in their favor.

  3. The riots that will occur if Trump wins---especially if he fails to get the popular vote---will make the riots this past summer look like...well, like peaceful protests. The Left will howl fraud and unfairness, and refuse to concede, and will spur civil unrest by any means necessary. And they know that that's what decent, rational people are aware of; It's their means of extortion and voter intimidation.

    1. Both sides are playing this game. Trump has said several times he doesn't plan to exit the WH in January cause the election will be a "fraud". And Hillary just told Biden not to concede on election night no matter what happens.

      The statists on both sides are setting us all up for riots election night

    2. If Trump wins he's going to send in the troops and clean up the streets. Communist guerilla factions know they get sympathy when government looks too authoritarian. That's the only reason Trump hasn't sent in the troops yet, IMO. He knows a show of force will result in many deaths and brutal photographs all over MSM.

      I'd argue RW is exactly wrong here. It's better for BLM to step up the aggression now and force Trump's hand. After the election they get the pain they deserve and hopefully the government can prove a RICO case against them too.

  4. If we can keep the leftist trash from destroying the voting process, it's going to be a Trumpslide for 2020. Even some duh-versities are intolerant of the rioting and looting that's been occurring. I'll be voting for Trump since neither libertardians or Democrats have anything to offer. Hell, libertardians support open borders stupidity, so I'm not clear why they won't simply vote for the party that wants to do that.

  5. Biden/Harris is like McCain/Palin. Not gonna happen. Not meant to happen.

  6. Based on the Transition Integrity Project (TIP) gaming of possible election outcomes a military coup is a possibility. The TIP is a group of former top government officials who had John Podesta as Biden in the games.

    One of the scenarios is to have the military of the USA remove Trump from office. The highest ranking military officer, general Milley, has already been advised to do so by retired army officers. The military elite want Trump out because he has not allowed the full invasion of Syria (among other things) which they want as a proxy war with Russia.

    The TIP gamed that election results will be greatly delayed – late December or early January - due to lockdowns and the huge amount of mail in ballots due to C-19 scaremongering (these are deep state ploys to create chaos during the elections). The chaos creates uncertainty as to results. Both Biden and Trump do not concede. This leads to Pelosi as House leader to declare Biden POTUS. Trump refuses to leave office. General Milly orders the military to remove Trump.

    Scary stuff but the PTSNB are desperate for many reasons. These people need the power they have to get away with their nefarious activities and will not give it up and allow them to be exposed. Four more years of Trump may be too much for them to bear.

    HT Armstrong Economics

  7. "Both Biden and Trump do not concede. This leads to Pelosi as House leader to declare Biden POTUS."

    What if the Republicans take the house, and that's a known ahead of the point where Pelosi could act? Wouldn't her authority be considerably weakened, such that declaring Biden POTUS would be unlikely?

  8. Trump will win.

    Having a VP who's a half-black cop and married to a white guy will not bring out droves of black voters. The association of the democrat brand with the riots (along with record gun sales) tells me that people are spooked and have someone to blame for their fear. We've already seen the Access Hollywood tape; I don't think they have anything else on Trump before November.

  9. The Democrats will have so much election fraud on their side, I don't see how Trump can possibly win.