Monday, June 29, 2020

Why the Panic Over The Texas COVID-19 Spike?

James Grant reports in:

Perhaps you can address what I am seeing as a fundamental disconnect regarding this supposed "spike" in coronavirus cases in the sunbelt.  One of my questions is:  How was this not expected?  When people were advised to separate themselves from others and to only associate on the most basic of terms for three months with the idea of "slowing the spread" or "flattening the curve", then allowed to do those things again, who could have NOT predicted that a spike would occur.

I have watched interviews of Wolfgang Wodarg, Sucharit Bhakdi, Knut Wittowski and many others.  They all assert that the lockdown/social distancing paradigm would only work to slow the normal course of the virus....that it would not be eliminated.  The consensus seemed to have been that as normal course of "herd immunity" acquisition was being deliberately slowed, when the lockdowns were lifted, it would resume.  Why is that now a surprise?

This weekend I observed a coronavirus testing center on several occasions.  On Friday, immediately after the Texas governor's announcement of the opening rollback, the lines extended several hundred feet along the sides of the building.  On Saturday, they were not so long, but several dozen people were waiting their turn outside.  All appeared to be in their twenties, thirties and possibly early forties.  I saw none who were obviously above that age range and none who appeared ill.  If that is typical and my observations are correct, it would appear that the majority of those who are being tested at those sites are not those who have been classified as at risk.  And if your assertions (borne out by the reports from the Texas Hospital Association) that tests are being administered to those having elected surgery are correct, the hospitalization rate is being seriously skewed.  As a side issue, that Association has issued a press release stating that their ICU capacity is NOT being overwhelmed and that they are in an excellent position to handle large increases in cases.

That all leads to my second question.  If a large percentage of people being tested are in the 20-50 age bracket, a spike in the positive results for that age bracket is apparent and the hospitalization rate being deliberately skewed, why is it a bad thing that younger people are being infected? Isn't that an indication that the predictions of all of the above referenced experts are being borne out and "herd immunity" is being actively acquired among those people who are least likely to be negatively affected and not among the higher risk groups?  Isn't that what we all want?

And conversely, if shut-downs are re-instituted by the various powers, aren't they ensuring that the disease, which will extend indefinitely anyway, will in turn continue have negative health effects?  How is that a good thing?

Please respond!  I am interested in your opinions.  Yours and various writers on have been among the few voices of reason I have seen during the last few months of insanity.

Thank you,

James Grant
There are a few things going on here.

 First, there is an attempt by mainstream media to give the impression that Trump failed in "protecting us" against the virus.

They just hate him and will distort anything.

 Second, both "dread risk fear" and "herd risk fear" have been triggered and so there is less of an opposition to draconian steps being taken by government officials. I discuss this in my latest podcast: Dread Risk Fear And Its Role in the Current COVID-19 Fear.

This is why you are not seeing a lot of logic right now.

If you are using logic right now, you are a one-percenter, not necessarily in terms of wealth, but certainly in terms of rationality.



  1. Why would anyone believe a spike in cases could occur from "opening up too soon", whatever that means, but not occur from millions of people.pouring into the streets of over 2,000 north american cities to protest for days and weeks, completely ignoring the social distancing guidelines that supposedly save us?


  2. A site I follow recently posted the headline, "Reopening Of Popular Michigan College Bar Results In 85 COVID-19 Infections". I commented, "Good, we're 85 people closer to herd immunity." I completely fail to see the point of trying to delay getting this @#$%^&* virus over and done with. Its spread can't be stopped, the fantasy of a magic vaccine appearing any time soon is, well, a fantasy, and the longer we drag this out the longer people truly at risk will feel the need to avoid real life. Yet I can't think of a single official who will address these points, even to try to refute them. They just pretend it's self-evident that we must slow the spread as much as possible. We're living in the Twilight Zone, or perhaps a Kafka novel.

  3. It seems I agree with most of what I've read in this article. The media is trying to scare us. The number of cases rising or spiking is a good thing and short of a vaccine the only thing that will get rid of this virus. Why does the media ignore that? Who does it benefit to ignore heard immunity?