Thursday, April 2, 2020

Mortality in the Age of COVID-19 and the Role of Government



Serhat Tekinalp emails:
Bob, question about coronavirus: as far as I can find out, average weekly mortality is about 8000 in US. December, January and February highest. There's a graph in CDC website.

However, I couldn't find the numbers for the most recent weeks. If it is still in the normal range the whole thing is just scare mongering. I would only start to worry if it went up more than two standard deviations.

Do you know where we can find the recent mortality numbers in US?

I appreciate all the work you do.

Thank you,
RW response:

Unfortunately, I have been unable to find a weekly number either.

There is a lot about COVID-19 that we can't understand at present because the data just isn't out there. And there is a lot of misleading data that is currently promoted by the government and mainstream media that adds to panic about the virus.

It is true that unless mortality climbs significantly, it will be easy to label the current government and media comments as scare mongering. But I think it goes beyond this in many ways.

If say mortality is significantly higher because of COVID-19, but it is primarily among those with serious chronic health diseases, then it makes little sense to lockdown the entire country. Those who are at high risk should take precautionary measures.

And even further, if COVID-19 is a deadly threat to the entire population, which is not the case, it would still make little sense for the entire nation to be under lockdown by government edict. One can protect oneself by self-isolating if one feels the risk-reward ratio of not self-isolating is too high.

Instead, we have the current situation where power-freak government officials determine that we all must isolate even though this virus does not appear to be a mortal threat for most. And often issuing orders that are in direct contradiction to what one would think are sound measures such as against bike riding in the sun.

At a fundamental level what is going on is an incorrect belief by the general public that government control is the best way to handle such threats. It is not generally understood that government edict is a blunt instrument of governments. Blunt because it is impossible for them to plan each and every individual circumstance and all its nuances. This can only be done by individuals in free exchange who can adjust risk-reward ratios to there own individual situations.

What we are now experiencing is a despicable aggressive effort by power-freaks to rule over us. For those of us that love freedom over being herded like sheep, the time is not good.

-RW

7 comments:

  1. Perhaps one thing good that can come out of this is that hopefully Americans will become even more distrustful of the media. This is a crisis right up their alley and they can barely contain their glee over each piece of gloom and doom. Eventually we will know what the true R naught figure is and what the true mortality rate is and my guess is that it is significantly lower than currently thought.

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    1. I hope you are right but I am less optimistic about the general public. Sure the likes of the readers of this blog will learn the truth. But those that, even thought they do not have great trust in it, get most of their info from the corporate media will be a lot less likely to learn the truth. The corporate media may eventually divulge the truth or publish retractions but they typically do so in a manner that very few people are aware of.

      But there has been at least one good that has come from this hype: the COVID-19 traffic patterns.

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  2. Excellent commentary by RW. Unfortunately I do not believe we will ever know the true data about the coronavirus. First because I don't believe it is humanly possible to identify each individual exposed to the coronavirus nor do I think statistical sampling is effective because of the complex interaction between viruses and human immune systems. But even more significantly I don't believe the government numbers. The bureaucrats are in control now and they have a lot at stake. Health bureaucrats just like the MIC bureaucrats and the banking bureaucrats will do whatever is necessary to maintain their positions including manipulating data.

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  3. Perhaps more good things that can come out of this are 1) no more PC woke nonsense with distance learning; 2) no more letting schools control what kids learn bc some hopefully more parents will start paying attention to what they study 3) no more reckless partying behaviors in colleges; 4) no more reusable plastic bags as grocery stores are opting out (unless you bag your own groceries bc there will always be stubborn people out there); 5) no more excuses to not spend time with your kids or immediate family; 6) no more complaining about not having time to do something useful; 7) help me out here folks

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    1. Here are my two cents: No more facial recognition, no more fingerprints

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  4. I have the sneaking suspicion that deaths due to normal flu and pneumonia have suddenly decreased.

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  5. 8000 is more likely the daily average mortality in US

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