Common Dreams has published an article by staff writer Jake Johnson that begins:
An alarming scientific report compiled by British researchers and shared with the Trump White House warns that, in the absence of drastic and coordinated government action, the novel coronavirus could kill as many as 2.2 million people in the United States alone.The "scientific" report was written by epidemiologist Dr. Neil Ferguson. et al. and published Monday by the Imperial College of London,
It contains this major qualification (my bold and highlight):
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic.Got that? The paper makes its 2.2 million death claim by making the assumption that no measures will be taken to counter the virus and the R0 stays at the absurdly high level of 2.4. These are dishonest assumptions (especially since behavior has changed in the US dramatically). So why is someone publishing such a dishonest paper?