Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Will 2.2 Million Americans Die From COVID-19?


Common Dreams has published an article by staff writer Jake Johnson that begins:
An alarming scientific report compiled by British researchers and shared with the Trump White House warns that, in the absence of drastic and coordinated government action, the novel coronavirus could kill as many as 2.2 million people in the United States alone.
The "scientific" report was written by epidemiologist Dr. Neil Ferguson. et al. and published Monday by the Imperial College of London,

It contains this major qualification  (my bold and highlight): 
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. 
Got that? The paper makes its 2.2 million death claim by making the assumption that no measures will be taken to counter the virus and the R0 stays at the absurdly high level of 2.4. These are dishonest assumptions (especially since behavior has changed in the US dramatically). So why is someone publishing such a dishonest paper?

-RW

9 comments:

  1. This is insantiy par excellence.

    I read an article that says there are 200K ventilators available in the U.S.

    One medical organization, based on fantatic projections like this one, estimated we may need 960K ventilators.

    Right now, best data says only the most critical 5% of those infected need ventilators. So there must be 4 million people infected in the U.S. at exactly the same moment to use up all the ventilators.

    To meet the doomsday prediction of 960K needed, we would have to have 20 million people infected all at the same time.

    Given that China who bored the brunt of the worst and most virulent first wave had roughly only 150K total infections and have now approached nearly zero new cases in under 8 weeks and South Korea who had roughly 80K cases have turned the corner in lesser time. How were we ever going to approach this level of need ever? Especially given the draconian measures taken when starting at virtually zero cases???

    This makes no sense except in regard it is perfect cover for a targeted economic crash and political power grab

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  2. Today I had to put up with standing in a meeting (coordinated in a one on one hourly basis so not too many of us mingled) where among other things we were told not to make jokes about the virus. And this is in a warehouse of almost all men who joke all the time about pretty much everything.

    The person who told us this revealed that he is part of the at risk population because of an underlying health issue, and hearing jokes about this can cause anxiety.

    If you're that concerned stay home! Get a note from your doctor instead of telling us what we can and can't say you control freak! (and of course no one took what he had to say seriously, even though he's well liked.)

    Within minutes of that I had the following exchange:

    Me - *blow a kiss to a buddy I work with.*

    Him - Plays along and acts flattered.

    Me - I'm sorry: that was insensitive and might have caused you undue anxiety. What I meant to express was a yearning for you to make it through this without the instance of death or a compromised ability to breathe, because in acute cases those are two of the worst outcomes. In short I hope you don't get sick and die. Sorry for being so morbid earlier.

    ----

    There's a difference between preparing and riding it out and doing the same but then also sucking the fun out of life. Idle worrying and telling us what we can and can't laugh at is not going to help anything. Goofing off and feeling good even though a lot of things are deteriorating can be a brief but much needed break.

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  3. They always do, and always have done, more intensively so in the last decades. They invoke epidemics like crazy. Of course, incentives are the key.
    Like economists who predict doom unless we print money etc. etc.
    People have an atavic fear of illness, that makes them forget that it is wealth (good living conditions, hygiene, nutrition) that lead to good health and good immunity. Destroying the economy in fear of a virus is suicidal.

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  4. THE ELITES WORLD WIDE WANT TO GET RID OF TRUMP EVEN IF IT MEANS HAVING CHAUNCEY GARDINER AS PRESIDENT.

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  5. RUSSIANS HAVE A SENSE OF HUMOR ABOUT THIS.
    Russia just registered its first death from coronovirus. The dude was killed in his garage when the shelf with 400 kilograms of rice, beans, buckwheat and canned food collapsed on him.

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  6. This video from is quite striking. Listen at 8:45 where Donald McAdams
    explains that the NORMAL calculation for mortality used by the CDC is
    usually “confirmed cases” (those which have a positive test for a virus,
    say the flu) + “estimated cases” those basically the CDC makes an
    educated guess at based on daily hospital, dr etc reports but NO tests;
    obviously you can’t test every normal patients for flu if not serious).
    Given this methodology I just explained, the U.S. “Mortality” rate for
    the “Case fatality rate” is around 0.1% in the U.S for the flu…… BUT if you use the
    WHO president’s faulty method of using JUST confirmed positive test
    cases for the flu divided by the confirmed dead from the flu then the
    “Case Fatality rate” for flu jumps up to 10%…….the WHO simply used the
    tested positive for the CORONA divided by the defaced with a positive
    corona test to get a “Case Fatality Rate” of 3.4% based on data from
    China & South Korea…….this cannot be remotely accurate (the WHO
    presidents announcement of the 3.4% CFR on 3 March kicked off the global and U.S. panic and in all likelihood, if honest
    data on this ever allowed to be seen, the actual lethally of this
    Corona virus is actually on par with a slightly worse flu……..tear the
    world up for this? This is a huge hoax, power grab and scam......millions ruined and more dead in the long run for what? Cause "Orange Man Bad"?

    https://www.youtube.com/wat...

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  7. The engineered business and financial crash will make the virus look like a walk in the park and the Oligarchy will try to regain control with a totalitarian knee-jerk

    The Idiocracy socialists will kowtow to especially when the re-infection starts to create round 2

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  8. Here is the actual link to the article on mentioned by McAdams in the video:

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/hello-world-before-economy-totally-disintegrates-will-anyone-else-notice-who-director-made-basic-math-error-in-causing-global-coronavirus-panic/

    "** Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus used the actual number of deaths due to coronavirus divided by confirmed cases to get his 3.4% mortality rate number (from last week -since that time the mortality rate based on current reported numbers is near 4%)

    ** Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus then compared the actual coronavirus mortality rate to an estimated flu mortality rate of 0.1% — The US flu mortality rate is based on an estimated 22,000 deaths divided by an estimated 36 million flu cases giving a 0.1% mortality rate.

    ** Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus compared known numbers for coronavirus (3.4 percent mortality rate) but did not include the estimated number of those infected who are asymtomatic. This number is likely in the tens of thousands and could be in the millions! There is no way of knowing right now. One study released this week revealed that 6 of 7 people infected by coronavirus are asymptomatic! They do not know they are infected!

    ** Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus then compared the known numbers of 206,845 cases of coronavirus to the millions of estimated annual cases of flu cases. Again he does not include the asymtomatic cases, the 6 of 7 people infected who do not suffer severe symptoms.

    ** If asymtomatic cases are included in Ghebreyesus’s calculation the actual mortality rate of the coronavirus is somewhere between 0.2% to 0.8% or lower.

    ** Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’s calculations of a 3.4% mortality rate is off by nearly 3.0%! "

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  9. Also can anyone actually verify this "the hospital system is overloaded" meme?

    I have seen no actual videos of "overloaded" hospitals which are all, conveniently, locked down and no one is allowed into them to verify the supposed "life and death" choices.....

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