Thursday, March 19, 2020

Spread of COVID-19 May Disappear as Warm Weather Approaches

The Summer Sun
The flu generally subsides as the weather gets warmer.

Since COVID-19 is structured in a general way like flu viruses, it has been hypothesized that like the common flu, COVID-19 will dramatically subside as the weather warms.

A new paper by Miguel B. Araujo and Babak Naimi, Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate, discusses research on SARS CoV-2 (aka COVID-19) and the climate. Here is the abstract  (my highlight)
As new cases of SARS CoV-2 (aka 2019-nCoV) Coronavirus are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine, hit the developing world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, potentially leading to a global human calamity. It is still early days, but using existing data we develop a large ensemble of ecological niche models that project monthly variation in climate suitability of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus throughout a typical climatological year. The current spread suggests a degree of climate determination with Coronavirus displaying preference for cool and dry conditions. The predecessor SARS-CoV was linked to similar climate conditions. Should the spread of SARS CoV-2 continue to follow current trends, a worst-case scenario of synchronous global pandemic is improbable. More probable is the emergence of asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks much like other respiratory diseases. People in temperate warm and cold climates are more vulnerable. Those in arid climates follow next in vulnerability, while the disease will likely marginally affect the tropics. Our projections minimize uncertainties related with spread of SARS CoV-2, providing critical information for anticipating the adequate social, economic and political responses.
In other words, the warming weather (with humidity) in the northern hemisphere is likely to kill off the virus for the summer. Note well: None of the doomsday scenarios, promoted by Trump's medical specialists adjust for the possibility of the virus dying down in warmer weather.

They never mention it. In fact, I suspect they will take credit for killing off the virus with their monstrous lockdown, when in fact it will be the summer sun.

NOTE: I am not forecasting that the summer sun will cause the virus to subside but it does look like a very strong possibility to me.


(via Marginal Revolution)

1 comment:

  1. The sun on your skin produces vitamin D which provides virus protection. Or you could just supplement with vitamin D if you don't live in a sunshine state.