Thursday, March 12, 2020

A Great Explanation of Exponential Growth and the Coronavirus

This is an excellent presentation by Grant Sanderson, a Stanford grad who specializes in mathematical presentation videos.



1 comment:

  1. According to John Hopkins University mainland China (over 60% of confirmed cases) reached the inflection point in the middle of February and number of infected stabilized at just over 80K at the beginning of March – see graph at bottom left:

    If the reports are correct that Asians are more susceptible to coronavirus than other races (“race is a social construct”) p = Probability of each exposure becoming an infection is higher for Chinese. Based on this should we expect inflection and stabilization for non-Asians to occur sooner and realize a smaller percentage of their population to be infected? Seems logical.

    There is a big problem with the accuracy of the information about Covid-19. Testing methods and implementation differ widely from country to country and likely for regions within each country. There are reports that in the USA the CDC has been withholding testing.

    Based on the current reported numbers Italy has a much higher rate of infection (0.021%) and death rate (6.64%) than China (0.006% & 3.92%). This indicates that Chinese are not more susceptible than Italians. Should those of us with Italian heritage be more concerned?

    Based on the graph linked above China reached inflection in about a month and stabilization about two weeks after that. “Other locations” seem to be about one month behind China.

    We may never get accurate information on this Coronavirus (COVID-19, AKA: SARS-CoV-2). If we ever do it will probably take years. If the way the powers that should not be handle this situation does not substantially diminish the masses trust in them what will?

    Fun Fact: it would take 30 days to receive $536,870,912 per day if on day one you are paid $1.00 and it is increased by an exponent of 2 every day after.