Friday, May 6, 2016

Trump Needs the Republican Party More Than the Republican Party Needs Him

By Michael S. Rozeff

The Republican Party will not fall apart or split up because Trump is an outsider who gets nominated. It’s an organization that’s been around for a long time, and any such organization tends to persist through thick and thin. Why should it fail over one election when it has money, many operatives, state organizations, and a controlling set of figures not only in state houses and state legislatures but nationally. This organization is a very valuable entity to them, and they’re not about to see it go under. Trump needs the Republican organization more than they need him if he is to make a viable run for the presidency. When major party figures like Paul Ryan who control this organization do not endorse Trump or hold out for concessions from him, it’s because they want something from him. Any “reaching out” he does to them shows his weaker bargaining position. Any naming by him of a standard Republican for VP, like Newt Gingrich, again shows he needs them. Trump will be controlled and channeled where it counts or he will have no chance. He will shift his political positions. In subtle ways, he will start to emphasize more traditional Republican themes. He can’t afford to run an entire campaign on his own or build a new grassroots movement. The party has the bargaining power of placing the machine at his disposal, without which he has no chance. These pols prefer to lose this election than see Trump take over the party. This is because they have vested interests. They can work with a Democrat in the presidency while retaining their own lesser elected positions and their posts in the party. I believe all of this and more is reflected in the current election probability that makes Clinton the favorite.

Many things can happen in the next few months. Trump might have some aces up his sleeve to overcome party divisions that take away from organizational support he needs while building up his own power, overcoming the Old Guard establishment and keeping to his own agenda. The current signals are not in that direction, however, based on three things that have happened recently. They are his “reaching out” effort, his rumored vice-president possibilities with Gingrich in the lead, and some of the bigwig Republicans holding back on endorsing him.

The above originally appeared at

No comments:

Post a Comment