Friday, January 30, 2015

Very Bad Polling News for Rand Paul

I consider Public Policy Polling one of the best polling organizations in the business. I have been saying this for a very long time. In December  2011, I wrote:
The first post-Christmas poll is out and it was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a group I consider the most accurate pollsters in the country.

Which is why the latest poll from PPP is very bad news for Rand in my view. They write:
 The biggest loser in this poll is Rand Paul. In addition to being in 8th place for people's first choice, he's also tied for 8th place as people's second choice. Only 10% of respondents list him as either their first or second choice, the lowest of any of the candidates we tested. Paul's net favorability with GOP primary voters has dropped by 10 points in the last year from +37 at 58/21 to now +27 at 50/23.

They also report (This report came out before Romney announced he wasn't running)
 PPP's newest national poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican candidate field, although not by a particularly substantial amount. He's at 21% to 17% for Jeb Bush, 15% for Ben Carson, 11% for Scott Walker, 9% each for Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee, 7% for Chris Christie, 4% for Rand Paul, and 2% for Rick Perry...

If Romney doesn't run for President and his supporters are reallocated to their second choices, Bush leads with 21% to 16% for Carson, 14% for Walker, 12% for Huckabee, and 10% for Cruz...

-The biggest winner has to be Scott Walker. His 11% standing appears to be the first time he's registered at double digits in a national poll. He's reached that level of support despite having the lowest name recognition of any candidate we tested, which is a pretty good indication that when voters get to know him they're coming to like him. Walker's near 3:1 favorability rating among those who have heard of him is second only to Carson. Things are headed in the right direction for Walker.

-The other big winner is Ben Carson. Despite being the only person in this mix never to have served in a major office before, he's outpacing other hopefuls with Tea Party credentials like Ted Cruz and Rick Perry...

Republican primary voters simply don't like Chris Christie. His net favorability rating with them is -8 at 35/43. Among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' it's 24/51- they just don't trust him at all. Last January Christie was polling at 14% for the nomination and now he has just half that level of support.

 Full results here


  1. Maybe he needs more photo ops with Al Sharpton to boost his poll numbers. Or maybe he needs to double down on his warmongering so that he can win the War Party's presidential nomination. He should promise a re-invasion of Iraq, carpet bombing Tehran, supporting rebels in Syria strategic sanctions against Russia, China, and Venezuela. He should leave the door for starting a hot war with N Korea and possible top it off with an invasion of Cuba.

  2. Hey Bob, not a fan of Rand, but no, PPP is NOT "most accurate pollsters in the country." That honor goes to John Zogby. PERIOD.

    Besides, PPP is to the Dem Party, like what RAND Corp is to the CIA: mainly, it IS the Dem Party's 'in-house' polling company, with visibly 3rd 'neutral' party PR bullshit posturing meant to fool the Blue Pill sheeple 'peons.'

    Why you'd distrust all 'establishment' source but PPP is beyond me, as if ALL polls and surveys AREN'T all push-polls.

    Plus, regardless of yours of my personal feelings toward Rand, he actually has now assembled the best political machine infrastructure among ALL probable candidates from both two wings of the same bird party hack ringers.

    Your glee maybe short-lived.

    1. I Democratic polling organization has no skin in the Republican game, with any particular candidate. They have no reason to down play Rand gains, if anything from a political perspective, it's the other way. This poll is serious trouble for Rand. If anyone is biased, it is clear you are.

    2. "Democratic polling organization has no skin in the Republican game," pretty much tells me how much you really know about politics.

      Did you even read this blogpost or my reply before replying??

      "They have no reason to down play Rand gains," ? No shit, Sherlock, which is why they are NOT downplaying Rand's NON-gains, capice?


      You're not so much as "biased," as reading comprehension-clueless.

  3. When a man chases two rabbits, he catches neither.

    1. That is a wise statement. The Neocons see him as a pot smoking Mooslim lover and the libertarians see him as a Neocon sellout.

    2. He just needs to concentrate on getting reelected to the Senate and focus on developing some integrity.